Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#336
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.2#20
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#296
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.6#348
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 2.2% 7.7% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 17.3% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 43.4% 28.8% 45.5%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.20.0 - 1.2
Quad 1b0.0 - 2.00.0 - 3.2
Quad 20.1 - 3.80.2 - 7.0
Quad 31.0 - 8.01.1 - 15.0
Quad 45.0 - 8.96.2 - 23.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 211   @ Western Michigan L 74-83 12%    
  Nov 09, 2018 72   @ Temple L 68-87 2%    
  Nov 12, 2018 33   @ Butler L 67-90 1%    
  Nov 19, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland L 75-79 45%    
  Nov 20, 2018 205   Bowling Green L 76-86 28%    
  Nov 24, 2018 135   @ Eastern Michigan L 65-80 7%    
  Nov 28, 2018 159   Kent St. L 72-85 19%    
  Dec 01, 2018 184   @ Akron L 72-83 11%    
  Dec 04, 2018 107   @ Dayton L 69-85 5%    
  Dec 05, 2018 126   @ Toledo L 74-89 6%    
  Dec 15, 2018 142   Ohio L 74-88 17%    
  Dec 21, 2018 44   @ Xavier L 71-93 2%    
  Dec 28, 2018 329   @ Youngstown St. L 82-83 36%    
  Dec 30, 2018 281   @ Cleveland St. L 73-79 22%    
  Jan 03, 2019 138   Wright St. L 68-82 16%    
  Jan 05, 2019 128   Northern Kentucky L 71-86 16%    
  Jan 10, 2019 235   Green Bay L 78-86 34%    
  Jan 12, 2019 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-77 38%    
  Jan 19, 2019 245   Oakland L 76-83 36%    
  Jan 24, 2019 181   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-86 11%    
  Jan 26, 2019 275   @ IUPUI L 71-77 22%    
  Jan 31, 2019 281   Cleveland St. L 73-79 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 329   Youngstown St. L 82-83 56%    
  Feb 07, 2019 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 71-86 7%    
  Feb 09, 2019 138   @ Wright St. L 68-82 7%    
  Feb 14, 2019 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-77 21%    
  Feb 16, 2019 235   @ Green Bay L 78-86 17%    
  Feb 23, 2019 245   @ Oakland L 76-83 19%    
  Feb 28, 2019 275   IUPUI L 71-77 40%    
  Mar 02, 2019 181   Illinois-Chicago L 75-86 25%    
Projected Record 6.2 - 23.8 4.6 - 13.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.2 1.3 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.4 5.1 1.4 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 6.2 8.3 4.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 22.9 9th
10th 3.5 8.3 10.2 7.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 32.9 10th
Total 3.5 8.5 12.3 13.9 14.1 13.2 10.7 8.5 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 77.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 1.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
9-9 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
8-10 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.9
7-11 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5
6-12 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-13 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-14 14.1% 14.1
3-15 13.9% 13.9
2-16 12.3% 12.3
1-17 8.5% 8.5
0-18 3.5% 3.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%